The labor force in the San Juan Islands grew between 2000 and 2008, and since then has been steadily shrinking, according recent data from the Washington State Employment Security Department. Meanwhile, federal census figures say the overall population of the islands has continued to climb steadily, from 14,077 San Juan County residents in the year 2000 to 16,015 residents in July 2015.

“[Hiring employees] is one of our greatest challenges every year,” said Orcas Islander Ryan Carpenter. Ryan, his brother Matt, and his parents have collectively operated the Deer Harbor Inn and Restaurant for the past 34 years. Each summer, they need to increase their employees from two to about 25, and they’re hard to find.

County unemployment rates tell part of the story. Compared to Washington state’s average unemployment rate of 6.5 percent, reports the Employment Security Department, San Juan County in 2015 unemployment rate averaged 4.8 percent; and in 2014 averaged 5.2 percent. The years between 2000 and 2010 saw unemployment rates ranging from a flat 3.4 percent in 2007, to 7.3 percent in 2010. Since 2010, that rate has steadily fallen to 4.8 percent in 2015.

Of the current population, a smaller percentage is now of an age popularly considered “working age” in the United States: 2,242 are under 18, while 4,708 are 65 or older. In the year 2000, 2,922 were 18 or younger, while just 2,670 people were 65 or older. The median age was 47.4. For 2014, the demographic website washington-demographics.com calculates a median resident age of 53.8. The 2015 census states that 59.1 percent of the overall population 16 years and older is part of the workforce.

Not surprisingly, the county sees a steady seasonal employment cycle ranging as low as 3.6 percent unemployment during April through October, and upticking to between seven and nine percent unemployment in the winter months. The recently reported January 2016 unemployment rate of 6.8 percent, while higher than the state’s year-round average, falls well within the normal range for the islands in wintertime, considering the traditionally higher January unemployment rates that have steadily decreased from 9.9 percent in 2010 to 6.8 percent in 2015.

In the year 2000, the workforce ranged from 6,890 in winter to 8,430 in summer. In 2004, the summer work force peaked at 9,410, and 2008 hit a summer high of 10,130. From that point, peak summer work force numbers have steadily declined each year, reaching 8,702 in 2015.

Year-round average work force numbers have also seen a long, wavering rise and fall since 2000, when the year-round average was 7,500 employed workers. This average peaked in 2008, at 8,750 workers; hit 8,060 in 2011; rose slightly to 8,415 in 2012; dropped to 7,846 in 2013; hit 7,657 in 2014 and then perked up just a smidge in 2015, with an average of 7,675 workers – just slightly above the year 2000 numbers.

Victoria Compton of the San Juan County Economic Development Council notes that 2012 was exceptional due to construction of the hospital on San Juan, which resulted in a higher average of 8,415 workers. “In the past year, it’s been heartening to see a more robust and steady employment base. While we should continue to address the growing wage stagnancy issue in San Juan County, we can take heart in the fact that our employment numbers are doing quite well post Great Recession,” stated Compton.

Washington Employment Security Department state labor economist Paul Turek told the Sounder he is expecting good employment growth in the state this year, mirroring the growth currently occurring on a national level.

“We are an expanding state as far as population is concerned, mostly from people moving from other states,” he said. He expects statewide 2016 employment numbers to improve at least up to 2015 levels, and then perhaps level off.

Orcas Island businesses had opinions on about the current employee situation.

“It just seems like everybody’s really busy,” commented a long-time island contractor. “The general perception is that most builders are as busy as ever; it’s back to what it used to be in the pre-housing crisis time.” He added that it seems the island workforce is aging: he knows a lot of builders who have recently retired, but he’s not aware of many younger contractors filling the ranks.